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29 May. Dollar retreats from highs ahead of the US GDP and end of month squaring.

The dollar had another generally positive session, making new highs against most of its counterparts, particularly against the Yen which headed to a 12 year low,  before giving up some of its gains as traders took some profit ahead of the release of today’s US GDP. Today is also month end so we could see […]
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28 May: Conflicting Greek headlines make for choppy trade. Yen under pressure. Aust Capex ahead.

It has been a choppy session, with conflicting stories coming out of Greece being the main driver against the EU majors. The Yen came under some pressure of its own following the BOJ Minutes, with the dollar heading onto a new 7 year high and with the likelihood of more gains to come. Today will see a fair bit of secondary data (EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Business Climate, Consumer Confidence, US Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales) but the market seems likely to remain rangebound ahead of …
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27 May. Dollar higher after US data. Euro pressured by Greece/Spain concerns; Stocks, Commodities lower.

The dollar has been the big winner today in making good gains against all its counterparts, while stocks and commodities have taken a hit and mostly headed sharply lower. Generally healthy US data boosted the chance of a near term rate hike by the Fed, while Greece's financial crisis and signs of growing opposition to austerity, after the weekend local elections in Spain, weighed on the Euro, Chf and Cable. The commodity bloc currencies all headed lower, while US$/Jpy is at 8 year highs and look …
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26 May: EU/UK/US back today. US Durable Goods and developments in Greece to be the main focus.

Aside from the Euro triggering some early downside stops, on the back of some negative weekend news re Greece, it has been a quiet session in the absence of the major trading centres. Today will liven up somewhat on their return, with the major economic highlights coming from the US, where the US Durable Goods Orders, Case Schiller House Price Index, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence will drive direction. Elsewhere, the main focus will once again be on Greece, where it looks as though a def …
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25 May: Firm CPI, optimistic Yellen underpin US$. W/E press hints at Greek default coming soon. EU/US holiday.

Slightly firmer US core inflation figures and a mildly upbeat Janet Yellen, who hinted that a rate rise is on its way - eventually - combined to send the sharply dollar higher on Friday against all its major counterparts. Further gains could be seen this week, although today will be thin on the ground due to holiday's in both Europe and the US. The main focus of the coming week will be the US Durable Goods (Tues) and then the provisional Q1 US GDP (Fri). With only Asia being involved, the highl …
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22 May: US$ mixed ahead of US CPI and speeches today by Carney, Kuroda, Draghi, Yellen. US holiday Monday.

Mixed data from the EU, as well as some soft manufacturing data from the US, has left the dollar mostly rangebound today, apart from Cable which benefited from strong UK retail sales figures. The other major move today was in WTI, which rebounded higher, to the top end of its recent range, on the view that a global glut may be starting to ease. Today will be busy ahead of the US long w/e. The BOJ meeting will be the Asian highlight and in the EU the German GDP and IFO will be released ahead of …
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21 May: US$ choppy after FOMC Minutes. A busy day of data ahead, along with Fed/Draghi speeches.

The FOMC Minutes saw the dollar weaken, albeit briefly, but it has since recovered its ground against all the major counterparts as the focus now turns towards speeches due from the Fed board members Fischer (Thursday) and Janet Yellen (Friday). Before then, today will be very busy, starting with the flash global PMI's, the EU Current Account, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and then followed, from the US, by the Kansas, Philadelphia and Chicago Fed Manufacturing Activity, Existing Home Sal …
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20 May: Dovish ECB comments & strong US housing data underpin US$ ahead of FOMC Minutes.

ECB comments on negative interest rates combined with a very weak German ZEW and then later, some strong US housing data, to send Treasury yields and the dollar sharply higher against the EU majors today, while Cable suffered because of the first negative CPI reading since 1960. Commodities did not like the stronger dollar and headed sharply lower, dragging the commodity bloc currencies with them. Today will focus on the FOMC Minutes for further clues as to when the Fed might be thinking of rai …
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19 May: Firm yields underpin the US$. A busy day ahead, starting with the RBA Minutes, RBNZ inflation outlook.

In the absence of any major data, higher US Treasury yields have allowed the dollar to make a small recovery today, while at the same time the Euro has been weighed down by ongoing concerns over what is going to happen to Greece. It will be a more lively session coming up, starting in Asia with the RBA Minutes and the RBNZ Inflation Expectations. Later on the UK CPI will be released, while EU gets the German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, EU Trade Balance and the CPI. From the US comes the Bu …
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18 May: Dollar slips after more soft US data. Commodity currencies lower. S+P at new all time high.

Another swathe of soft US data ensured that the dollar remained under pressure heading into the weekend, and it could be a repeat performance this week with plenty of data to come from both the US and the EU. There is not too much due today (NAHB Housing Market Index) but it cranks up in midweek, where the market will be closely watching the FOMC Minutes (Wed) for any clues on what the Fed might be thinking with regard to the timing of any impending rate hike. Elsewhere, there is more US housing …
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