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25 Nov: Euro lifted by a firm German IFO ahead of today’s US GDP/Confidence data.

A firmer German IFO business reading underpinned the Euro today and it would appear there may be some room for further short term gains as positions are squared ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday. Direction today will be decided by the outcome of the GDP data due from Germany and the US, and then by the US Consumer Confidence and Expenditure figures. Asia gets the BOJ Minutes and there will be speeches today from the BOJ's Kuroda, from the RBA's Lowe and from the BOE Governor Carney, speaking …
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24 Nov. Euro under increasing pressure as it heads towards critical support levels..

All was quiet heading into the weekend until Mario Draghi reiterated that the ECB will do everything within its powers to ignite growth/inflation expectations, sending the Euro tumbling sharply lower, and with more losses looking likely this week. Draghi was closely followed by a Chinese rate cut from the PBOC, which did not help the Euro at all, but sent equities sharply higher as well as, briefly, the commodity bloc. This week will look to a heavy raft of EU and US data, beginning today with …
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21 Nov: Another day, another multi year low for the Yen. Some consolidation likely today.

Despite new 7 year lows for the Yen against the dollar, it has been a largely sideways session for the major currencies, commodities and indices today , - and in the absence of any major data it could be much the same in the coming session. The focus will be on Mario Draghi, who will be speaking in early European trade and may create some waves, but that aside, there is little due apart from the UK PSNBR. Don't expect too much action. Have a good w/e.
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20 Nov: FOMC cautious on low inflation/growth concerns. Today sees global flash manufacturing PMI’s.

The FOMC minutes underlined the Feds concerns over low inflation and global growth prospects and the dollar has since seen some volatility against the majors, but is ending the US session pretty much where it was before the announcement, with more choppy consolidation looking likely. Yen weakness is still the major theme, which appears unlikely to change. Today sees the flash global manufacturing PMI's, (where Asia will closely watch the HSBC China figure), and later, the US CPI. The UK gets Oc …
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19 Nov: Choppy conditions prevail ahead of today’s FOMC Minutes. BOJ Meeting, BOE Minutes today too.

While equities are higher, with both the S+P and the Dow once again setting new all time highs, it has been a choppy but rather listless session for most currency pairs, and looks likely to be much the same again today ahead of the FOMC Minutes due later in the session. Ahead of that, the Yen will be the main focus in Asia with the BOJ Meeting due to conclude today, and then from the UK, we get the release of the BOE Minutes.
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18 Nov: US$ stages another recovery. A soft ZEW and doveish ECB would keep the pressure on the Euro.

The US$ has staged a recovery today after some early Asian selling, and most of the majors sit near their session lows. We seem to be in a period of general consolidation, which looks as though it could continue for the next few sessions although further doveish comments from various ECB members such as we saw today, will have the Euro under pressure once again. Today's direction will be guided by the ZEW Economic Survey and then later by the US PPI, while the UK will get the CPI, PPI,RPI. The …
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17 Nov: US$ on the back foot; Commodities higher, ahead of this week’s FOMC minutes, US CPI. Gbp, Yen still weak.

Despite some solid US data on Friday the US$ saw a sharp reversal against the Euro and the commodity bloc on Friday, while Cable and the Yen also remained on the defensive. Gold, Silver and Oil all saw sharp rallies. This week will look to the FOMC Minutes for some guidance towards the thinking of the Fed, but there is plenty else besides, beginning today with the Japanese GDP and later, a speech from Mario Draghi. The US sees the Oct Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation. Before then, NZ …
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14 Nov: US$ largely rangebound. Cable, Oil lower. EU GDP, US Retail sales today.

While the US$ was generally fairly steady against the majors today, Cable continued to suffer in the wake of the dovish BOE Inflation report and Oil hit a 3 year low - and appears to be headed lower still. Today's action will focus on the provisional German/EU GDP data and then later, on the US Retail Sales and R/M Consumer Confidence figures.
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13 Nov: Currencies mixed. Gbp lower after BOE report. EU CPI’s and China data today’s focus.

It was a mixed day today, with Sterling the main loser after the dovish BOE QIR report indicated a delayed time horizon for any interest rate hike, while the main winners were the Aud and Kiwi. The Euro and Yen both traded in choppy fashion and finished generally under some pressure against the dollar, and the Euro in particular may feel the heat again later on, once the EU CPI figures are released. Asia's focus will be on China, where Retail Sales, Industrial Production are due. NZ Business PM …
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12 Nov: US$ gives up some ground. More to come before the rally resumes?

The dollar ended up giving up some ground in thin holiday conditions, but not before it made a new multi year high against the Yen. Further near term losses look possible, with the focus today being on the EU Industrial Production and US Wholesale Inventories, while Cable will be busy with the release of the BOE Quarterly Inflation Report and October Jobs data. Before then, Australia gets the Consumer Confidence data
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