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31 Oct. US$ mixed after solid GDP. BOJ meeting, I/R decision coming up. EU CPI later.

It has been a mixed day following the release of the solid US GDP number, with the US$ generally holding on to the post FOMC gains, performing particularly well against the Jpy after talk of an asset reallocation for the GPIF. Stocks have done well taking the Aud along for the ride, while metals, especially Silver, took […]
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30 Oct: US$ firms as market bets on a 2015 Q2 rate rise. German Unemployment, US GDP today.

Despite the Fed decision to leave rates on hold for a "considerable time", the FOMC's move to end QE has seen a decent rally in the dollar, with most counterpart currencies sitting at or near session lows. It looks as though the dollar could see further gains and it will be today's German Unemployment and US GDP that will be the key drivers of whether or not this comes about. The NZD has been particularly hard hit after the RBNZ left rates on hold but dropped any reference to further policy t …
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29 Oct: US$ mixed, equities higher, after soft Durable Goods, ahead of today’s FOMC.

The dollar is weaker across the board ahead of the FOMC announcement later today after the Durable Goods badly missed expectations. It looks like being rather a non event until then with little data due from either Asia or Europe. There maybe limited activity in the Kiwi on the release of the Business Confidence but the focus will be on the Fed and whether, or not, rates will remain on hold for a "considerable time".
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28 Oct: Markets mostly on hold, waiting for the US data today (D.G./C.C.), FOMC tomorrow.

Misses by both the German IFO and then the US Pending Home Sales has kept the market in check today, with not too much volatility while we wait on the outcome of today's US Consumer Confidence/Durable Goods data, and more importantly, tomorrow's FOMC meeting, from where the market is likely to take its direction for the latter half of the week. There is little data from Asia or the EU today so it maybe a session of sitting on hands until the US get going.
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27 Oct. EU bank stress tests see Euro open higher. Focus this week: FOMC, US GDP, EU CPI, RBNZ.

Friday finished a generally choppy session, with much of the focus on the US equities markets again as they headed higher, as risk sentiment continues to recover from the recent sell-off. This theme may continue after the weekend EU bank stress tests came in pretty much as expected.There is plenty of data out in the next few days, starting today with the German IFO and some secondary US data. This comes ahead of the US Durable Goods, tomorrow, the FOMC meeting, Wednesday, and the US GDP Thursday …
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24 Oct: Improving risk sentiment sees a Yen sell-off, with chance of more to come.

Unwinding of Yen cross positions was the main theme of the day as risk sentiment continued to improve in the higher equity markets following the recent sell-off. Another positive session today, could see a continuation of the same theme. Elsewhere, apart from the weaker Kiwi, it has been a range-bound session and that maybe the […]
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23 Oct: Euro under pressure ahead of global PMI’s.

The dollar is generally firmer again today ahead of the global manufacturing PMI's, which will include various EU members, but kicking off today with the HSBC China figure. Cable is soft following the dovish BOE Minutes. Elsewhere WTI took another hit after the inventories report rose three times more than market expectations. PMI's aside, today sees NZ CPI (shortly), Australian Business Confidence/Conditions and UK Retail Sales. Later on, from the US, will see some regional Fed activity data …
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22 Oct. Euro lower on report of ECB bond buying programme. Australian, US CPI’s coming up.

The Euro headed lower against the dollar today, taking most of the other majors with it following a Reuters report that suggested the ECB is ready to begin buying corporate bonds as soon as December. Stock soared on the news as risk sentiment improved, although the Yen failed to notice and still sees decent demand against the dollar and the crosses. Today's direction will be driven by inflation data, first from Australia and then later in the day from the US. Also of note, Japanese trade data is …
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21 Oct: US$ heavy ahead of China GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales.

General US$ weakness developed through the session and it is closing near its lows against most of the other majors. With little EU or US data due today, focus will be on the China data, headed by the GDP. Estimates are of a Q3yy 7.2-7.5% rise although some analysts suggest that the number may be below 7% which would put another dent in global growth prospects. If so, look for another sell-off in equities and commodities in particular. Elsewhere, Asia also gets the WBC Leading Index & RBA Minute …
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20 Oct: US$ gained on firm data, Friday. This week: China GDP/IP/RS, US CPI, Flash PMI’s, RBA/BOE Minutes.

It was a choppy session Friday although the US$ managed some mild gains after some solid US Consumer Confidence data. More choppy but rather directionless trade may be in store today in the absence of any major data (German PPI, Existing US Home Sales), but it will warm up as the week wears on, starting tomorrow with the […]
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