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30 Sept: US$ mixed, WTI firm but stocks lower, despite improved GDP, on negative Deutsche Bank story.

The US dollar has had a mixed session, but generally underpinned by the US Q2 GDP which grew at 1.4% annualised, up from the 1.1% reported last month and better than analysts' expectations. WTI remains firm, following on from the surprise OPEC announcement of the previous session, while US stocks are lower, under pressure from a decline in Apple as well as the banking sector, as investors continue to worry about the health of Deutsche Bank. The Deutsche headlines hit risk sentiment and saw a …
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29 Sept: Oil higher after OPEC surprises markets. US $mixed, stocks higher. Yellen + Fed speakers due today.

The dollar has been sidelined on Wednesday despite Yellen and Draghi speaking but adding nothing new, with almost all of the focus being on the oil price, where OPEC surprised the market by announcing a production freeze beginning in November, sending WTI and Brent sharply higher. WTI is slightly off its highs at the end of the session as traders read deeper into the makeup of the deal, but it has been good enough to underpin the stock markets, which have headed higher on the back of the firmer …
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28 Sept:US$ mixed after Trump/Clinton. OPEC, US D/G, Draghi, Yellen, Bullard & other Fed speakers ahead.

The presidential debate between Clinton and Trump has seen stock prices end up a little higher, after a choppy session, while oil prices fell on fading hopes of agreement on limiting production at today’s OPEC meeting, before recovering late in the day following the surprise drawdown in the weekly US crude inventories. The US$ is mixed once again, but with a mild return to a more positive risk-sentiment on the back of the firmer stock markets, both the Aud and the Kiwi are a little …
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27 Sept: Stocks lower, US$ mixed ahead of Clinton/trump debate. WTI higher ahead of OPEC Meeting.

Traders have taken a more a cautious stance ahead of the Clinton/Trump debate, due at 11.00 am AET sending US stocks lower, to sit above important support. Oil is firm after some positive comments ahead of the OPEC Meeting, due in Vienna on Wednesday. However some observations from Iran seem to make a positive outcome unlikely, which would suggest the current rally is probably a decent sell area. FX Markets have had a mixed session although the dollar is generally a little lower as persistent …
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26 Sept: Oil and Stocks lower, FX mixed into the weekend. IFO, Draghi ahead + Clinton/Trump early tomorrow.

Currency markets were mixed on Friday, with the main moves coming in EurGbp where ongoing Brexit fears continued to weigh on Sterling. The Euro was generally the strongest performer on the day, while the Kiwi was under pressure, with the US$ generally being caught in the mix. In terms of data, the EU PMIs were mixed, with the Eurozone manufacturing figure up to 52.6 in September, from 51.7, beating expectation of 51.5. The Eurozone Services PMI however fell to 52.1, down from 52.8 and missed …
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23 Sept: US$ mixed, stocks higher following FOMC decision to stay on hold. Mfg PMIs today.

The markets continue to dissect the Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold at the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday, placing the US$ under pressure, with stocks and commodities generally trading with a firmer bias. The session’s secondary US data has been mostly ignored, but the weekly US initial jobless claims dropped by -8k to 252k, hitting the lowest level since mid-July, beating expectation of 261k. Existing Home Sales for August were soft, coming in at -0.9% as opposed to the expected +1.1%. …
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22 Sept: Fed on hold but signal a rate hike is on its way. BOJ, RBNZ also on hold. Draghi, Carney speaking today.

The Fed did as expected and left rates on hold although it has strongly signalled the chance of a rate hike in 2016, likely to come in December to avoid any clash with the US election. The BOJ also kept policy unchanged yesterday rather disappointed the markets, causing the Yen to strengthen against both the dollar and on the crosses. For its part, the dollar has been choppy with a slightly softer tone following the Fed announcement, particularly against the yen but also against the commodity …
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21 Sept. Sterling under pressure, otherwise markets mostly on hold, waiting for the BOJ, Fed, RBNZ.

The main interest on Tuesday has been in Sterling which is now trading back below 1.3000, while elsewhere it has been very quiet, in thin conditions as traders stand aside while waiting for today’s central bank decisions from the BOJ, the Fed and the RBNZ. All three are expected to remain on hold but there is always room for a surprise. More likely it will be the accompanying statements that provide the guidance for the next moves. The upcoming session has the potential to be the busiest …
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20 Sept: Markets rangebound ahead of this week’s central bank decisions.

Ahead of this week’s central bank meetings Monday has seen a choppy, but fairly sideways, session to start the week. Some early weakness in the US$, retracing a portion of Friday’s gains, was the theme through Asia/Europe, although that has now been largely reversed, with the exception of the moves seen by the Yen and the commodity bloc currencies, which have retained much of their early strength. WTI also made some initial gains although they too have since dissipated, while the metals …
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19 Sept: US$ higher after CPI, ahead of a busy central bank week. BOJ, FOMC & RBNZ all lie ahead.

The US$ moved higher against all counterparts on Friday after the inflation data raised speculation that the Fed could indeed raise interest rates in the near future albeit probably not in September, with December looking to be the favourite time for a hike. The better than expected CPI came in at +0.2%mm, 1.1%yy (vs +0.1%, 1.0%) and +0.3% for the ex-food and energy (exp. +0.2%). Elsewhere, Sterling in particular was weak on renewed worries over Britain's Brexit vote, closing at the week’s …
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