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18 Dec: US$ higher following FOMC in volatile trade. Be nimble!

It has been a very hectic session following the FOMC outcome. Despite a fairly benign outlook from the Fed, who replaced the phrase" considerable time" with need for "patience" in their forward guidance, the dollar is generally a fair bit stronger at the time of writing following Janet Yellen's press conference.More choppy trade looks to be in store in the session ahead and a fairly nimble stance is required as liquidity becomes increasingly thin. Later on we get the German IFO, US Flash Service …
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17 Dec. A wild ride on all fronts heading into today’s EU/US CPI, FOMC decision.

It has been an extremely hectic session, led by some serious volatility in the Yen (and the Russian Rouble), with the Dollar initially seeing a general sell-off, before a partial recovery later in the day. Commodities were also extremely volatile and included another sell-off, to a new trend low in the oil price before a sharp $3 bounce. Focus will now turn towards today's FOMC meeting, although before then we get to see the EU & US CPI figures, while from the UK, the BOE Minutes and Unemploymen …
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16 Dec. Yen gains in otherwise rangebound market. Oil, Equities lower, pressuring commodity bloc.

The dollar remained mostly rangebound again today ahead of the FOMC, with the exception of the Yen which made gains on most fronts on the back of safe haven buying because of a selloff in oil and stocks, in increasingly illiquid conditions. Gold and Silver took a hit in late US trade, both falling quite sharply. Today sees a fair bit of action, starting in Australia with the RBA Minutes/Debelle speech. Later we get the global Mfg PMI's starting with China (HSBC). The UK sees the CPI, as well a …
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15 Dec: Lower oil prices again in focus. US$ under some downside pressure ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC.

Oil was again in focus on Friday, collapsing once more and taking the equities markets with it. Bond yields headed lower too, undermining the dollar which looks to be under some pressure heading into the FOMC on Wednesday where a dovish outlook from Janet Yellen would put the cat amongst the pigeons, likely causing a decent cleanout of dollar long positions before Christmas. Other data this week will include the EU & US CPI's, the ZEW, the IFO and the global flash PMI's. Today sees the Japanese …
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12 Dec. US$, stocks rebound after strong US data. China Retail Sales, I/P, coming up.

A stronger than expected US November Retail Sales reading saw the dollar rebound today against all the major pairs. The Aud hit a new trend low on the back of an RBA call for the Aud to trade at 0.7500, while oil took another hit and is now trading below $60pb. It looks like being a choppy end to the week with the main focus being on China where the Industrial Production and Retail Sales will be closely watched. Later on, the highlight will be the US PPI.
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11 Dec: $US retreats again as risk aversion grows on the back of lower oil price, stock markets.

General dollar weakness and a growing risk-off sentiment has been the main theme today on the back of another big slide in the oil price, with the Yen, in particular, making strong gains. More of the same could be in store as stock markets look increasingly heavy. There is a fair bit of data due, headed by the EZ CPI's, Targeted LTRO, Swiss IR decision and the US Retail Sales. Australia gets the Jobs data, and the RBNZ has just left rates unchanged, with the Statement causing the Kiwi to spike …
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10 Dec: US$ uptrend on hold as Yen, Euro stage partial recovery. China CPI today’s focus.

General US$ weakness allowed the other majors to make a decent recovery today from their recent trend lows, before the dollar staged a partial recovery of its own late in the session. In the absence of any major EU or US data today, it could end up being choppy but rather without direction, so the focus will be on Asia, from where we get the China CPI for November and from Australia where the Consumer Confidence and Home Loans data are due. Gold and Silver surged on safe haven interests. Oil at …
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9 Dec. US$ slides after making new trend highs against major counterparts.

Early dollar strength which saw new trend highs against all the majors, dissipated and then reversed, led by profit taking in US$Jpy which headed sharply lower in making the first decent correction in quite a while. In the absence of any major data today, it could be a session of general consolidation, although Asia gets the Australian Business Confidence/Conditions. Later on sees the German Current Account, Trade Balance and US Wholesale Inventories, and from the UK, the Industrial & Manufactur …
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8 Dec: US$ higher again, as a Fed rate hike looms following the strong NFP result.

The dollar's inexorable rise continued after the release of the strong US Jobs data with the market now eyeing a rate rise from the Fed, sooner rather than later. Most currencies are at multi-year lows against the dollar and it looks as though there is more of the same on the way. The week ahead has a fair bit of data due, starting with the German IP and the EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey today, both of which could well put further pressure on the Euro. The focus in Asia will be on the Q3 …
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5 Dec: Euro higher as ECB delays stimulus decision. EU GDP, US Jobs data today.

Both the ECB and BOE left rates unchanged, as expected. However the lack of any immediate action from the ECB saw a sharp rally in the Euro, but which has since given back some of those gains. Elsewhere, US$Jpy took out the 120 level before a quick turnaround, and is currently unchanged from this time yesterday. The market will now look to the Q3 EU GDP for some guidance, but the real action will come from the US Jobs data. Australia sees the AIG Performance of Construction Index, while from the …
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