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4 May: US$ mixed. A busy week coming up. RBA decision (Tue), UK election (Thu), US Jobs/NFP (Fri) all in focus.

The dollar made a good comeback against the Yen, Cable Aud and Kiwi at the end of the week although the Euro (and Chf) remains very firm, underpinned in part by some slightly improved EU data and some very strong performances on the crosses. The dollar does not appear to be completely out of the woods yet though and conditions are going to remain choppy, and very much event driven. This week sees the UK election, which will be pivotal for cable. Elsewhere, the RBA meet tomorrow, while the main e …
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1 May: US$ mixed. Euro remains strong – Aud, Gbp, Yen under pressure. China/US Mfg data today.

The dollar made an attempt to recover today, after the better than expected jobless claims, and made some reasonable gains against most counter-parties, barring the Euro which remains extremely strong. The Aud (rate cut speculation/ lower iron ore price) and Cable (election jitters) in particular had a tough session. Asia, today, will get the Chinese manufacturing/non-manufacturing PMIs and the Japan CPI. It is the May Day holiday for much of Europe, and so should be pretty quiet until the US se …
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30 Apr: Dismal US Q1 GDP undermined the US$. Fed remain mildly positive after the FOMC.

The dismal Q1 US GDP data was today's culprit, sending the US$ sharply lower again after missing expectations badly. The FOMC result offered little new, although the Fed remained remained reasonably positive in noting that the economy's Q1 slowdown is due to transitory factors such as the bad weather, and in effect, signalling that an increase in interest rates remains on the table. The timing of any hike remains uncertain but looks increasingly pushed out to September at the earliest. More vola …
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29 Apr: US$ Stays Weak as Markets Await FOMC. More of the same ahead?

The US$ remains under heavy pressure today’s after more soft US data, this time the Consumer Confidence, that comes ahead of today’s FOMC Meeting.  Cable and the Aud in particular were very strong, but were followed closely by the Euro. A dovish Fed today will only see the dollar selloff continue and for the time being […]
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28 Apr: US$ under pressure again ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC. Aud$ higher ahead of RBA Stevens’ speech.

The Euro is firm and the US$ again under pressure, after some signs that Greece wants to be more accommodative in their negotiating stance in order to avoid the chance of a default/EU exit. Cable and the Aud were particularly strong performers but most currencies finished near their session highs against the dollar. Metals also had a strong day, assisted by the solid bounce in the Iron Ore price over the last few sessions, doing the Aud no harm at all. The market may now settle down ahead of Wed …
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27 Apr: More soft data, (D/G,Friday) undermines the US$ ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting.

More soft data from the US, this time the Durable Goods Orders, undermined the dollar at the end of last week and appears to give the Fed further reason to be cautious about raising rates at any time in the near future. This week's highlight will be the FOMC Meeting and rate decision, but no change looks likely in rates until September at the earliest, and only then if we see a pick-up in the economic numbers. The Eurogroup meeting achieved very little on Friday apart from kicking the whole issu …
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24 April. More soft data keeps the US$ under pressure. Eurogroup Meeting, US Durable Goods Orders today.

The US$ is generally under pressure again today on the back of more soft US data and some relatively upbeat news from Greece, where the prospect of a default and an exit from the EU seem to be waning (or more likely, postponed). Today sees the Eurogroup meeting, at which the situation in Greece will be the centre of attention and will largely drive the direction of the markets, although Greece will not present a list of economic reforms and the whole deal seems set to be kicked down the road, to …
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23 April. US$ reverses early losses after firm housing data. Flash PMI’s today. Eurogroup meeting tomorrow.

The US dollar was under some pressure early in the day but turned itself around after the improved US Housing data. US$Chf and Cable were the star performers, with the Chf under pressure after the SNB moved to widen the application of SNB rules on negative IR, while Cable surged on the more hawkish BOE Minutes. There is plenty of secondary data due today, headed by the flash PMI's, but it may be another choppy session, driven by event risk, ahead of tomorrow's Eurogroup meeting, where Greece wil …
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22 April: US$ mixed. Australian CPI today.. a weak number taking AudNzd below parity?!

It was a choppy session again today in the the absence of any major data, and with the dollar ending mixed against the other majors, with much of the focus being on the situation in Greece. It could be much the same again today, with little due from either the EU or the US (Existing Home Sales), as the market begins to turn its focus towards Friday's Eurogroup meeting. Australia will get the CPI data, which will push the Aud around, and with a weak number likely to push AudNzd below parity. Late …
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21 Apr: US$ firmer, as Greece concerns weigh on the Euro. RBA Minutes, German ZEW today’s focus.

The US dollar took on a bid tone today as Greek concerns weighed on the European majors. The Aud$ also came under pressure after hints of further rate cuts from the RBA Governor, Glen Sevens. Equity markets liked the weekend announcement of the China increased stimulus programme and reversed Friday's sharp falls. In the absence of any major data today it could be a sideways session as the market begins to focus on the Eurogroup meeting on Friday at which Greece will be the top of the agenda. The …
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