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28 Jan. Soft US data placing the US$ under pressure ahead of today’s FOMC. Australian CPI coming up.

The US$ and stocks both came under pressure following today's weak US Durable Goods Orders, as traders turn their attention to today's FOMC meeting, with growing speculation that the Fed might hold off on raising interest rates for longer than has been expected. Today's other big event will be the Australian CPI, at which a soft reading - on the back of lower petrol prices - is expected. If that turns out to be the case, it would put another dent in the Aud, pushing it towards the RBA's stated o …
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27 Jan: Euro recovers from new lows after Greek election result. Focus now turning to FOMC (Wed).

An early sell-off in the Euro has been reversed, on the back of some profit taking following the result of the Greek election, with focus now turning towards Wednesday's FOMC Meeting. Ahead of that, today's action will come care of the German Retail Sales and then the US Durable Goods Orders. The Aud also got a reprieve ahead of tomorrows CPI although the Kiwi remains heavy, at trend lows, ahead of Thursday's RBNZ Meeting. US Stocks have been choppy, but firm, following the solid performance fro …
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26 Jan: No reprieve for the Euro (or the $Aud) ahead of this week’s FOMC. Greek election result, IFO today.

The Euro took another beating on Friday as it heads its way quickly towards 1.10. The Aud fared little better and it looks as though the RBA wish for a 0.7500 Aud is not so far away. This weeks highlights will come via the FOMC Meeting (Wed) and US GDP(Friday). There is plenty else besides, starting today with the BOJ Minutes and then later on, the German IFO and EU Retail Sales, to be followed from the US by the flash Services/Composite PMI & Dallas Fed Mfg Survey . Today is Australia Day, so t …
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23 Jan: Euro at 11 year low (and heading lower) after ECB QE announcement. Equities higher.

The long awaited ECB QE programme has now been revealed, and with Mario Draghi announcing an asset buying programme of Eur 60 bio per month commencing in March and continuing until September 2016, the Euro has duly headed sharply lower. Global equities liked what they saw and have all seen a decent rally, with the Dax at all time highs. The theme seems to be to expect more of the same over the coming weeks, with direction today to be provided by the global manufacturing flash PMI's, led off by C …
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22 Jan: Euro volatile, but holding above the lows ahead of today’s ECB meeting. A busy session coming up.

The Euro has had a choppy session ahead of today's ECB meeting, with various leaks causing a squeeze higher and then a reverse, to finish the session not too far from where it started. The Aud and the Kiwi both saw some decent damage done, on the back of a surprise easing from the BOC, sending $Cad sharply lower and taking both the Aud and Kiwi along with it. The ECB will be the only game in town today, so until then it is likely to be quiet. After that go with the flow, but looking to sell any …
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21 Jan: US$ strength again the general theme. BOJ Meeting today. Gold higher.

General dollar strength has again been the theme of the day, with both the Yen and the Euro under pressure ahead of respective central bank meetings (BOJ today / ECB tomorrow). Aud and Kiwi are both also lower despite yesterday's solid China data, with today's direction to come via Consumer Confidence (Aud) and CPI (Nzd) data. Gold was again a winner, so far falling just shy of 1300oz, while WTI fell sharply. Elsewhere today, the BOE Minutes and US housing data will be the main focus.
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20 Jan: A rangebound session. China Q4 GDP, R/S and then the EU ZEW to be the day’s main focus.

A quiet session, - aside from yesterday's 8% fall in Chinese equities, - due to the US holiday. Normal service will be resumed today, with the Chinese GDP, R/S and I/P kicking things off in Asia, ahead of the EU/German PPI, ZEW Survey and then the US NAHB Housing Market Index later in the session. Much of the focus though will be on Thursday's ECB meeting and also on the weekend Greek election result, so it is likely to be a day of position squaring before then. NZ get the Q4 Business Confidenc …
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19 Jan. A big week ahead for the Euro. ECB meeting (QE?), Thursday, Greek election Sunday.

Another day, another trend low for the Euro on Friday. This comes ahead of this weeks all-important ECB meeting where Mario Draghi will almost certainly announce that some form of EZ QE is about to get under way, which will be followed by the Greek election, Sunday, where a left wing victory looks to be on the cards.. Elsewhere the Swiss reverberations overshadowed the market and liquidity was somewhat thin ahead of today's US holiday (MLK day). Gold continues to benefit from the fall-out and s …
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16 Jan. A wild ride after the SNB scrapped the 1.20 peg. Gold the big winner. EZ/US CPI’s coming up.

The SNB announcement to scrap the peg to the Euro triggered a wild ride today, and those with a Chf position have either made their annual budget or have been wiped out for the rest of the year, depending on which way they were set. The question is, are the SNB anticipating some major action next week from the ECB with regards to QE, which would make it impossible to protect the peg? We shall have to wait till next Thursday to find out. In the meantime, today sees the EZ/US CPI figures, and a so …
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15 Jan: EURNZD: Trade Idea. Sell Medium term rally.

Currency Pair: EURNZD Action: Sell Limit @1.5400 Stop loss Price: 1.5545 Profit target/ exit strategy: 1.4965 Risk/Reward Ratio: TBA Time Frame: Medium-term Comments: This might be a bit left field for a lot of traders, but I am looking to sell into a rally, back to the break down level in the weekly chart (below) at around […]
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