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24 Aug: Another steady session as focus looks towards Jackson Hole for guidance.

Markets remain relatively stable ahead of this week's Jackson Hole meeting although, of note, the S+P did, by a fraction, make a new all time high and WTI managed a decent rebound from the correction of the last 24 hours. In terms of data, U.S. new-single-family home sales unexpectedly surged in July, reaching their highest level in nearly nine years amid robust demand, bolstering the view that economic growth will pick up in the third quarter and underpinning the hawkish view over the last few …
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23 Aug: Stocks and FX mostly rangebound. Oil, Silver lower on hawkish Fed talk.

Currencies and stocks have been choppy but mostly ended up going nowhere too far as traders prepare for the Jackson Hole symposium later in the week - although varies Fed members seem very keen to raise rates as soon as possible. Whether Janet Yellen backs up their view when she speaks on Friday remains to be seen as the recent US data does not generally seem to support an imminent rate hike. The main movers of the day have been in commodities, where Oil and Silver in particular both saw a …
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22 Aug: Focus now turns to Jackson Hole/ Janet Yellen – following hawkish Fed comments of last week.

Stock drifted mostly sideways on Friday while the US$ strengthened a little as traders began to weigh up the chances that the Fed may raise interest rates, possibly as early as September, following on from some hawkish comments last week from various officials who hinted at a bias towards hiking. The comments have caused traders to re-examine the FOMC minutes from the most recent meeting, released last Wednesday, which seemed to carry a more dovish tone than the Fed are currently …
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19 Aug: Cautious FOMC Minutes keeps US$ under pressure. Jackson Hole/Yellen next week’s focus.

The dollar is languishing near multi week lows against the Euro, Yen and Chf, focusing on the dovish tone of the previous day’s FOMC Minutes, despite data today showing that the number of US citizen filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week (262K v 265K exp), reinforcing views of labor market strength that could encourage the Fed to raise interest rates soon. Elsewhere, Sterling strengthened today as UK retail sales rose strongly, by 1.4% mm in July, versus …
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18 August: US$ edges lower after Fed minutes disappoint hawks. Australian Jobs, EU CPI today.

The US dollar reversed early gains and came under under mild downside pressure after some choppy price action following the release of the FOMC Minutes at which the general consensus was for a prudent approach to raising rates, using the ongoing data as a gauge to the timing of any hike, although some Fed board members were slightly more hawkish and wish for more immediate action. Stocks were also volatile but currently sit pretty much unchanged on the day. The coming session will kick off …
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17 Aug: US$ sold off sharply, ahead of a bounce, on Fed comments. FOMC Minutes ahead

The US$ was sold off sharply today although it has since recovered from its lows following conflicting observations from various Fed members. It was already under pressure in European trade, and accelerated lower on the back of earlier comments in a paper from SF Fed President John Williams' who said that the Fed should consider setting higher inflation targets than the current 2%pa, which the market read as dovish and likely to keep rates low for longer, but then turned around after the NY Fed …
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16 Aug: Oil, Stocks higher. FX rangebound. RBA Minutes, ZEW, UK/US inflation in focus today.

The currency markets have been mostly choppy in Monday trade, with little to excite traders, although Cable remains under pressure due to the ongoing Brexit concerns. The main action has been in oil, where WTI rose by around 2.7% which underpinned stocks, sending both the S+P and the DJI to yet another daily/all-time high. Note that the Fed will release the minutes of its July meeting on Wednesday which will provide further clues on plans to raise rates, although traders seem to be growing in …
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15 Aug: US$ pressured by soft Retail Sales. FOMC, ECB and RBA Minutes all due this week.

The US$ ended on a soft note after the release of Friday's weaker than expected Retail Sales, although it did manage a bit of a bounce from its lows heading into the weekly close. The headline figure only rose by 0.0% in July, below expectations of +0.4%, while ex-auto sales fell by-0.3% (exp +0.2%). PPI dropped -0.1%mm, -0.2% yy versus expectation of 0.1% mm, 0.3% yy. The week ahead will see a steady flow of economic data that is likely to bring some action on most days, with the possible …
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10 Aug: Currencies trade mixed. Oil makes 3 week high before mild reversal after soft US data.

Equities and commodities took what headlines there were today although the action was minimal, driven along by the U.S. non-farm productivity which unexpectedly fell in the second quarter, pointing to sustained weakness that could raise concerns about corporate profits and companies' ability to maintain their recent robust pace of hiring. The S+P made yet another all-time high (before a very mild downturn) which we have been doing pip-by-pip for some time now, while WTI continued its recent …
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9 Aug: US$ mostly firm after Friday’s NFP. WTI higher. China CPI, UK manufacturing data coming up.

The US$ is generally firm following on from Friday’s US Jobs data, with range trading generally the name of the game during Monday's session. The Aud caught a bid tone and headed to new trend highs although finishing slightly lower, but on a firm note. Oil was a notable mover, reaching up to 43.36 before dipping into the US close. The Chinese July CPI (exp 0.1%mm, 1.8% yy) will be then main event of the day on Tuesday although the UK Manufacturing data will also be closely watched. That …
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