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2 March: A busy week ahead. Focus on IR decisions due from BOE, ECB, RBA & BOC and then US Jobs/NFP.

February finished with the dollar largely consolidating last Thursday's gains, and with little directional price action on Friday although the Euro and the Yen were both relatively weak on the day. The coming week will be busy, and the initial interest will be on the surprise weekend China 0.25% cut in the RRR and the official manufacturing PMI which came in just above expectations at 49.9. Beyond that, the main focus is going to be on the interest rate decisions from the ECB, BOE, RBA and the B …
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27 Feb: US$ takes off after solid data, hawkish Fed comments. WTI down 5.5%. US GDP today.

It was all about the US$ today (and WTI, which fell 5.5%), and after several weeks of consolidation it took off once the US got in, following some hawkish comments from the Fed's Bullard/Williams, and closely followed by some solid Durable Goods data which sent US bond yields soaring. Another busy session looks to be in store today and if the provisional US Q4 GDP backs up the DG data, then the dollar is going to head towards new trend highs against many of its counterparts, with the Euro looki …
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26 Feb: A day consolidation but with Aud, Kiwi both making good gains. A busy day of data, ahead.

It has been generally a rangebound session, although the commodity bloc made some decent gains, with the Aud and Kiwi both finding favour on the basis of their yield, while at the same time triggering stop losses in a market trading from the short side. Today will be a busier day (hopefully!), with the Australian […]
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25 Feb: Yellen cites the need for flexibility, improved data, before raising rates. Flash HSBC China Mfg PMI ahead.

Janet Yellen's testimony to Congress painted a slightly dovish picture, citing the need for flexibility, with the Fed unlikely to be in any hurry to raise rates, at least for the next couple of meetings or until they see further improvements in unemployment, inflation and the global growth outlook. The markets have been choppy, sending the US$ a bit lower and equities higher. More choppy trade looks to be in store today in the absence of any data, although both Yellen and Mario Draghi will be s …
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24 Feb: All eyes on Janet Yellen. German GDP, EU CPI & US Consumer Confidence also due.

A soft than expected German IFO coupled with ongoing Greek concerns pushed the Euro lower today, although the US had some soft housing data of its own which interrupted the dollar's rise and saw the other major's recover some of their earlier losses. Focus now turns to Janet Yellen's testimony to Congress, later in the coming session, although there is plenty else besides to provide some interest. From the EU we get the German GDP (Q4), EU CPI (Jan), and the BOE Governor will be testifying to t …
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23 Feb: A busy week ahead, with Yellen, Draghi and Greece the centre of attention.

The currencies continued to chop around on Friday, driven by the latest headlines coming from the EU/Greek talks on the renegotiation of Greece's debt. The end result was that the Euro finished up pretty much where it started, after an agreement of sorts, to extend the bailout period for 4 months. The winner was the Aud$, which benefited from the improved risk sentiment, while the Yen lagged, as the need for a safe-haven diminished. This week will be busy with plenty of data due for release but …
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20 Feb: Euro on the back foot after Germany rejects Greek loan extension proposal. Flash PMI’s today.

It has been another generally choppy session with Greek headlines again being the main focus, especially after Germany rejected the Greek proposal to extend the current loan conditions.. This looks set to be the case heading into the weekend, although the EU and US manufacturing PMI's have the potential to create some waves. Otherwise there will be little to go on so it could be a rangebound session, dominated by political sound-bites from the EU. have a good weekend.
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19 Feb: US$ undermined by dovish Fed minutes. More choppy consolidation looking likely.

The US$ was mixed heading into the FOMC minutes, slightly stronger against most of its counterparts, except for Cable, which was boosted by solid employment numbers and the outcome of the BOE Minutes. That all changed after the release of the FOMC Minutes, and with the Fed taking a mildly dovish stance, the dollar has since weakened across the board. All up, it looks like we are in for a continuation of the recent choppy trade, going nowhere fast unless there is any definitive news one way with …
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18 Feb. US$ mixed ahead of FOMC Minutes. BOJ meeting, BOE minutes also in focus today.

The dollar is mixed today, slightly weaker against most of its counterparts but stronger against both the Yen and Cable. It could be a busy session ahead, starting with the BOJ Meeting and then followed up later on by the BOE and the FOMC Minutes. There is a mix of US data as well (US Building Permits, Housing Starts, PPI, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production) which could all add up to give the dollar its next directional move. The Chinese NY celebrations begin today so liquidity/ interes …
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17 Feb: Failure of Greece negotiations dents the Euro. RBA Minutes coming up.

The big story today was the failure of Greece and the EU to agree on any sort of common ground in renegotiating the Greek debt issue, which sent the Euro sharply lower and looking as though there could be more of the same ahead. There is a fair bit of data today, starting with the RBA Minutes and then later from Europe we get the UK CPI and the German/ZEW Survey. From the US we get the NY State Empire Mfg index and the NAHB Housing market Index. Also watch out for a speech from the SNB's Jordan …
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